Despite cohesion, Syria regime could fall

CAIRO — Unlike other Arab autocratic regimes which have cracked under a wave of uprisings Syria's leadership has remained intact but analysts differ on whether it can weather the storm and survive.Whereas in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya divisions surfaced only weeks after popular unrest, there have been no known defections or cracks in the top-tier of President Bashar al-Assad's regime or inside the security forces, despite a brutal crackdown on protesters and international condemnation.Analysts say that is because of the clan structure of Assad's inner circle."President Bashar al-Assad does not rule Syria single-handedly," according to Exclusive Analysis, a London-based firm specialising in risk analysis."Certainly, such major decisions such as how to handle the ongoing unrest in the country are taken after some consultation between members of this inner circle, which is not limited to the al-Assad family but also includes key allies in the military-security apparatus," it said in a written response to AFP.Hafez al-Assad, who seized power in 1970, ruled for three decades until his death when power was transferred to his son Bashar, with the backing of the family, clan and the Alawite minority to which they belonged."Thus far, there has been general agreement over the fundamental issues in Syrian politics: That the Alawite minority should dominate the state and economy through the Baath party and the military security apparatus," according to Exclusive Analysis."There is most likely no major disagreement within the elite over the necessity of using lethal force on a large scale to quell unrest," it said.Thomas Pierret, who starts teaching a course on Syria this September at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland, agrees."All members of the clan in power know that the regime cannot be reformed, precisely because of its clan nature. You can reform an authoritarian regime if it is based on strong institutions, but not if it is based on a patrimonial system," he added.The website of the Syrian Observatory

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